Q2 2015: INDUSTRY REPORT

ON-PREMISE TRENDS REMAIN WEAK THRU EARLY AUGUST BUT SOME NOTABLE SEGMENT SHIFTS

  • The on-premise channel was weak in the latest 4 weeks ending 8/9/15, with traffic down 2.7% vs. down 1.5% YTD. The consumer remains cautious with discretionary spending and we’ll continue to monitor whether lower gas prices drive any improvement as we head into the final months of the year.
  • Share changes between alcohol beverage categories: Beer trends improved from the prior month as the World Cup was lapped. Beer unit share was down 0.5% in the latest 4 weeks (vs. down 0.8% YTD), wine share was down 0.1% (vs. flat YTD) and spirits share was up 0.6% (vs. 0.8% YTD).
  • Total Alcohol: Total alcohol units sold was -3.4% during the 4 weeks (vs. down 2.8% YTD), a function of weak overall traffic.
  • BeerBeer unit growth was -4.6% during the latest 4 weeks vs down 4.8% YTD.
  • Beer Segments: Craft’s y/y share gains slowed significantly from the +1.8 share point gain in 2014 and +1.0 last 12 weeks to only +0.7% during the latest 4 weeks; Premium Light’s y/y share loss has moderated from -1.9 during 2014 to -1.2 points on the 4 weeks; Imports’ y/y share loss moved from -0.3 during the latest 12 weeks to flat during the latest 4 weeks, driven by strength in Mexican imports; and Cider’s y/y share gain slowed fairly significantly from +0.5 during 2014 to +0.2 during the latest 12 weeks and last 4 weeks.
  • Overall Spirits: Spirits unit growth was -1.9% during the latest 4 weeks, below the -0.9% YTD trend as traffic remained weak.
  • Spirits CategoriesSegments gaining y/y share of spirits during the 4 weeks are Tequila, Irish and Brandy/Cognac, coming at the expense of Rum, Cordials, and Vodka.
  • Craft Spirits: Domestic Craft Spirits continue to take market share at a strong pace.
  • Overall Wine: Wine volumes were -3.9% during latest 4 weeks vs. down -2.7% YTD.
  • Wine Varietals: YTD the largest y/y volume share gainers have been Prosecco, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, Red Blend and Moscato, while the largest share donors were Merlot, Chardonnay, Riesling, and Zinfandel.