Q2 2016: INDUSTRY TRENDS

On-Premise Trends: Traffic fell -3.3% year-over-year during the four weeks ending 7/10/16. While the On-Premise channel remains soft, the period was an improvement from traffic declines persisting since March. The latest four weeks exceeded the rolling 12 week trend (-3.6%) and were on par with the rolling 24 week trend (-3.2%).

Total alcohol unit growth benefitted from the small improvement – increasing to -3.5% from -4.0% (12-week) and -3.8% (24-week).

Beer: Beer units fell -5.0% during the period, improving on 12/24-week trends (-5.7%), as well as the 52-week trend (-5.1%). Beer’s share of total alcohol losses also improved – losing -0.7 share points during the period versus -0.8 points over the latest 12 weeks (and -0.9 YTD).

Beer Segments: Premium Plus passed Craft as the top-gaining segment – gaining +0.3 points during the period. Craft share gains slowed to +0.2 points – a steady slowdown from the latest 52/24/12 week trends (+0.5/+0.4/+0.3 points). Premium Light share loses continued to steadily improve – down -0.5 points during the four-weeks versus -0.7 points YTD. Imports gained +0.2 share points during the period, moving back to share gains after losing -0.1 points over the latest 12 weeks.

Spirits Categories: Spirits continued to outperform the alcohol category – declining -1.7% during the period. As a result, Spirits gained +0.8 share points – while Wine (-0.1 points) and Beer (-0.7 points) both lost share during the period. Vodka gains improved from +0.8 share points over the latest 12-weeks to +0.9 points during the four weeks, while Irish share gains slowed from +0.5 points to +0.4 points. Tequila also improved – increasing from +0.5 points over the last 12 weeks to +0.6 over the last 4 weeks. Bourbon/Blends maintained a -1.2 share point loss during the period, Cordials lost -0.4 points, Rum lost -0.4 points, and Scotch lost -0.2 during the period. Brandy gained +0.2 share points and Gin was flat.

Overall Wine: Wine lost share of total alcohol during the period – falling -0.1 share points. Spirits share of alcohol remained steady at +0.8 points, while Beer losses improved to -0.7. Within the Wine category, Bubbles share gains were flat during the four weeks, slowing from a +0.4 share point gain over the latest 52 weeks. Cocktails were up +0.5 points during the period, increasing slightly from the 12-week trend (+0.4 points).

Wine Segments: Share gains in the Luxury/Ultra/Super Premium segments improved from a collective +0.1 points over the latest 12-weeks to +0.5 points during the period. As a result, losses in Popular/Economy segments worsened from -0.1 points to -0.5 points. Rose share gains increased to +0.3 points, taking share from Red (-0.2 points) and White (-0.1 points).